Fun enough post. I was reading more on sports betting and data vendors... inspired by your previous post and thinking about event driven bets for NFL, MLB, ... but was not sure what latency I might find for free on the internet. Those high volume Kalshi markets seem interesting and I was surprised to learn that some Redditors allege television is sometimes 30-120s off live. I like the links out to other web logs, and will include even more textbooks via Giuseppe Paleologo in my Library.txt file.
idk the exact lag but i can confirm that it is quite large; you can pick off those orderbooks if you are at the game live. a friend of mine was somewhat regularly going to chicago basebally games this summer and making a few k every game. basically you just pre-enter a limit order on your phone, hover your thumb over the buy button, and slam it after a hit/something happens. there is much more money to be made doing this if you do some actual analysis knowing stuff like exactly how much the fair will change conditioned on a homerun etc. because then you can confidently market take multiple levels.
I am reading up now on a tonne of different sites' taker fees basically if Kalshi makes sense or not. For people in Texas under current de facto interpretations of laws maybe but maybe not for people elsewhere.
kalshi fees are high, but has the best liquidity. poly has none (for now). regardless though, the fee amount is much smaller than the EV. idk sports that well but like how much do you think the odds of a football game change when an interception happens? or what about sports like soccer after a goal? a lot right? i guess what i’m saying is there should be enough free lunch where picking off the resting orders should be good regardless of the fees on these exchanges. for “pre event” market making that’s totally separate though and for that yeah i think fees are super important to optimize for
GPT sent me a link to the Kalshi fee structure which looked to me like often somewhere between 1-2% on bets so the edge is there often enough like I was monitoring Carolina Panthers versus New York Jets as well as Toronto Blue Jays versus Seattle Mariners and if you know what to look for there are definitely events which can predictably sway odds by 10+% on volumes like maybe even tens of thousands on both values bounding a 0.01 spread. Especially with a close ish score later in a game there was a clear moment when New York Jets odds went up from 0.10 to 0.20 or so and this sort of stuff happens all the time even if a bettor is not sure about the fair underlying or wants to minimise variance.
Fun enough post. I was reading more on sports betting and data vendors... inspired by your previous post and thinking about event driven bets for NFL, MLB, ... but was not sure what latency I might find for free on the internet. Those high volume Kalshi markets seem interesting and I was surprised to learn that some Redditors allege television is sometimes 30-120s off live. I like the links out to other web logs, and will include even more textbooks via Giuseppe Paleologo in my Library.txt file.
idk the exact lag but i can confirm that it is quite large; you can pick off those orderbooks if you are at the game live. a friend of mine was somewhat regularly going to chicago basebally games this summer and making a few k every game. basically you just pre-enter a limit order on your phone, hover your thumb over the buy button, and slam it after a hit/something happens. there is much more money to be made doing this if you do some actual analysis knowing stuff like exactly how much the fair will change conditioned on a homerun etc. because then you can confidently market take multiple levels.
I am reading up now on a tonne of different sites' taker fees basically if Kalshi makes sense or not. For people in Texas under current de facto interpretations of laws maybe but maybe not for people elsewhere.
kalshi fees are high, but has the best liquidity. poly has none (for now). regardless though, the fee amount is much smaller than the EV. idk sports that well but like how much do you think the odds of a football game change when an interception happens? or what about sports like soccer after a goal? a lot right? i guess what i’m saying is there should be enough free lunch where picking off the resting orders should be good regardless of the fees on these exchanges. for “pre event” market making that’s totally separate though and for that yeah i think fees are super important to optimize for
GPT sent me a link to the Kalshi fee structure which looked to me like often somewhere between 1-2% on bets so the edge is there often enough like I was monitoring Carolina Panthers versus New York Jets as well as Toronto Blue Jays versus Seattle Mariners and if you know what to look for there are definitely events which can predictably sway odds by 10+% on volumes like maybe even tens of thousands on both values bounding a 0.01 spread. Especially with a close ish score later in a game there was a clear moment when New York Jets odds went up from 0.10 to 0.20 or so and this sort of stuff happens all the time even if a bettor is not sure about the fair underlying or wants to minimise variance.